Life Expectancy <> Vulnerability

24 Oct 2025

In his book, How the World Really Works, Vaclav Smil explains the relationship between life expectancy and vulnerability. In short, the more we extend our life expectancy, the more we increase our vulnerability to comorbidities of old age.

The United Nations project that the number of people 65 years old and older will progressively surpass the number of infants and then children:

“By the late 2070s, the global population aged 65 and older is projected to reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children under age 18. By the mid-2030s, there will be 265 million individuals aged 80 and older, outnumbering infants. Even rapidly growing nations will experience a rise in the elderly population over the next 30 years.” (source)

This demographic shift will have a major impact on both the healthcare system and social protection programs.

It also means that a larger share of the population will be more vulnerable (possibly 1 in 4 or 1 in 3) when the next pandemic arrives.